• BTC’s monthly Bollinger Bands remain at historic compression with implied volatility floored at the lows. Historically, this configuration precedes a large directional move, with current confluence pointing to upside.

• Forward-return data from BTC 5-day discount:: 6-, 12-, and 18-month windows have been positive across every historical instance.

• Altcoin returns from weekly discount historically run in the hundreds to thousands of percent, and alts are currently lagging the average three-month return (post 1W discount) signifying some sort of catch-up move.

• Low-timeframe structure on BTC and ETH is not strong. That is an open acknowledgment, not a thesis change. A further sweep is on the table, though not enough to make me open any shorts.

• A 8–18 month run from here to a potential top would likely wrongfoot the four-year-cycle camp into mistaking the move for the start of a fresh cycle.

Weekly Analysis

The Volatility Setup — Bollinger Bands and Implied Volatility

BTC’s monthly Bollinger Bands remain at historic levels of compression. The single clearest chart to show how frustrating this cycle has been. Implied volatility from Deribit (data available since April 2021) is sitting at historic lows. Historically, the pattern at these lows are consistent: an initial spike (typically a liquidation event), a higher low on implied volatility, then a sustained move. The IV signal itself is direction-agnostic, while it does confirm a large move, it can never signal which direction. The directional read comes from the surrounding confluence: deep discount levels across BTC, ETH, and alts, plus macro factors discussed in past issues, all of which point to upside from the crypto market.

Key Signals

• BTC monthly Bollinger Bands are still at historic levels of compression with no expansion yet, which is the most defining feature of this cycle’s price action

• Deribit implied volatility data (since April 2021): currently floored, while displaying sequences we have seen before

• Recurring IV pattern: initial spike (liquidation event) → higher low on implied volatility → sustained directional move

• 2023 example: the pattern resolved to the upside after a liquidation-driven IV spike and a higher low

• Inverse example also exists: the same pattern has preceded multi-leg moves to the downside, remember IV alone is direction-agnostic

• Directional read comes from confluence: discount across BTC, ETH, and alts, plus macro factors point to upside from the crypto market

• Market broadly is not positioned for the volatility expansion the setup suggests, regardless of which way it resolves

• Forward projection: a 8–18 month run from the start of this move to a potential top would wrongfoot the four-year-cycle camp into reading the expansion as the start of a fresh four-year cycle rather than the continuation of this one

Forward-Looking Returns From Discount

I have created a system built around accumulating discounts like we have had in crypto. So lets take a look and run some rudimentary tests. The logic will be simple: the indicator flashes green at discount and orange when neutral; the test measures forward returns from the exit point (of the X timeframe discount). BTC exited its most recent 5-day discount roughly four months ago, which puts the current window inside the historical 6-to-18-month return profile, where the data is most clearly positive. Altcoin returns from the equivalent weekly-discount exits are historically multiples of BTC, and alts are currently lagging the average three-month return (post 1W discount) signifying some sort of catch-up move is likely.

Key Signals

• TEST: indicator flashes green at discount, orange at exit; forward returns measured from the exit point forward

• BTC exited its 5-day discount roughly 4 months ago, with the current window sitting inside the historical 6-to-18-month return profile

• BTC 3-month forward returns from 5-day discount exits are mixed at short horizons (historical instances roughly +17%, +6%, +12%, -10%)

• BTC 6-month forward returns: more clearly positive, with one historical outlier near +180%

• BTC 12-month forward returns: positive across every historical instance

• BTC 18-month forward returns: positive across every historical instance

• Altcoin forward returns from weekly discount exits (deeper discount, deeper opportunity): Cardano ~2,000%, BNB ~1,600%, Algorand ~5,000%, Cronos ~500%, Litecoin ~105%

• Alts currently lagging the typical 3-month return pace which leaves potential for a catch up move if the broader resolution plays out

• Sigma status update (new project): in active development, returns visualization still rough; underlying logic Monte-Carlo tested and validated across stocks, commodities, and forex (not overfit to BTC cycles)

• More to come: lower-timeframe trading applications of the same system are in development

Low-Timeframe Caution on BTC and ETH

The lower-timeframe outlook on BTC and ETH is not strong. The macro structure is consistent with the 2014-style bottom thesis from prior issues, but the weekly and daily are weaker than ideal. None of it is enough to add shorts, and none of it changes the higher-timeframe data. A further sweep could change my timeline but not my thesis that we are looking at a bottoming structure.

Key Signals

• BTC macro structure: low-timeframe sweep aligns with the 2014-style bottom thesis from prior issues

• BTC weekly: structure is not strong that’s an open acknowledgment, not a thesis change

• BTC daily: just flipped green (momentum), but this has been known to mark the exhaustion of relief bounces before another sweep (if not new bullish momentum)

• Not adding short positions despite the structural note the higher-timeframe data still guides my swing trades and spot holds

• Initial bounce → pullback in the sigma indicator is a normal pattern, including into prior bottoms; the “foot in the sand” zone has shown defensive price action before

• A further 2022-style sweep is on the table; if it comes, the willingness to allocate doesn’t change only my timeline

• ETH: structurally weaker than BTC, currently sitting below its range

• ETH weekly: missing the swing failure pattern a re-sweep below the lows would likely be required before structural confirmation

• ETH daily: crossed green; 3-day not yet showing anything notable

• ETH possible deeper sweep target: ~$1,300 area

• Regardless of the short-term path: I focus on the 6-, 12-, and 18-month forward-return profile from Section 2 — that data doesn’t move with the daily chop

Closing Thought

A more measured read this week than the last few, and that’s intentional.

The data is still pointing the same direction it has been. The 6-, 12-, and 18-month forward returns from where Bitcoin sits today have been positive across every historical instance. The volatility setup is the tightest it’s ever been on the monthly chart. The structural case for the next leg hasn’t weakened.

But the short-term picture is genuinely messy. The weekly isn’t strong. The daily flip green has marked relief-bounce exhaustion before. And the honest read is that a further sweep is on the table, though not enough to change the position I do want to acknowledge it openly. I’d rather tell you that than pretend every chart lines up perfectly when it doesn’t.

Here’s what I want to leave you with. If you’ve been with this newsletter for the last few months, the hard part of this trade is mostly behind you. The accumulation happened. The discount got bought. The framework did its job. What’s left is something most investors are not naturally good at — sitting on positions and letting time do the work.

The next phase is about not undoing the work that’s already been done. The data favors the 6-to-18-month window, so stay patient & stay positioned.

This Week at a Glance

• BTC tagged $74K which was a level we discussed last week and reacted hard. The weekly swing failure pattern targets a move back above $80K.

• The bull case continues to progress. BTC monthly Bollinger Bands at the tightest compression in history, the 40-level on momentum has been reclaim and is holding, and OTHERS reclaiming key levels faster than BTC or ETH.

• The Fed is more pinned than headlines suggest with non-farm payrolls (rate of change) in territory that has historically guaranteed recession, which forces stimulation regardless of the inflation mandate.

• Rising inflation is, counterintuitively, constructive for assets up until the Fed pivots back restrictive policy, and forward-looking inflation turning up has historically marked the stronger windows for crypto/risk assets.

• Perception vs reality: every prior discount zone was perceived as gloom and doom in real time, yet each marked a bottom. Bearish perception at discount has been the signal, not the deterrent.

Weekly Analysis

The $74K Reaction and the 2022 Bottom Parallel

BTC tagged $74,000 and produced a nice reaction off the lows. The weekly candle printed a swing failure pattern: bears had the opportunity to take control and could not, with the close coming back inside the prior down-candle’s wick. Daily and 2-week momentum are curling up, while stablecoin dominance charts printed an inverse setup, and the broader structure continues to echo a second-phase of 2022-style bottom.

Key Signals

• $74K tag and violent reaction off the lows, a level we called the prior week

• $74K held on the weekly timeframe; weekly swing failure pattern with bears unable to take control

• SFP target: a move back to the candle that started the pattern — which puts BTC back above $80K

• BTC daily momentum curling up; weekly momentum flashing green with a potential cross

• 3-day close confirmed above key levels; 2-week swept below an SFP and held $74K; 2-week momentum curling up

• BTC pulled into discount on the 4-hour for the first time since the February low; 12, 8, and 4-hour all flashing green

• News driver at the lows: Clarity Act headlines signaling it would not pass, landing after Friday’s close on a holiday weekend (max-capitulation was the sentiment)

• Shorts piled in at $74K and have yet to be punished, but early signs showing they are trapped with this weekly close

• ETH: same weekly SFP as BTC, but no weekly cross into bullish momentum yet; key reclaim level ~$2,400 (top of the range)

• ETH 12-hour oversold for the first time since the prior low while sitting at the 0.618 fib of the broader range

• OTHERS index: confirmed a second green week in bullish momentum. Which is structurally healthier than BTC or ETH; altcoin strength now showing in USD terms, not just BTC pairs

• USDT/USDC dominance: rolled out of premium into neutral, with weekly bearish momentum, and a bearish SFP. This is the exact inverse of the bullish SFPs on BTC and ETH

• 2022 bottom parallel: four months of structural similarities; possible second phase of a 2022-style bottom; a strong reaction could carry to $84K–$85K before a retest of $80K

There’s More Where That Came From

I covered a lot more than this over on YouTube this week with three videos going deep on the bull case, the macro picture, and the psychology tying it together.

Honestly, there were so many charts and moving parts that compressing all of it into the newsletter wouldn’t do it justice. So here’s the short version, and I’d point you to the videos for the full breakdown. Apologies for not fitting everything in, some of this is just better watched than read.

YouTube

I walked through why I think crypto is poised to move now and not with the typical ‘4yr cycle”. We also pointed out again bitcoin’s monthly Bollinger Bands are the tightest in their history, and low-volatility regimes like this one don’t last forever! Especially for an asset as far down the risk curve as crypto. Layer in the reclaim of the 40-level on momentum, & the same reclaim showing up on the indicator’s previous “breakdown” levels. Also note OTHERS index reclaiming key levels faster than Bitcoin or Ethereum, and the setup gets hard to ignore. Gold has pumped, equities have pumped, crypto is the last asset standing that hasn’t fully participated.

On the macro side, I made the case that the Fed is far more pinned than it lets on, and the constraint is the labor market. Non-farm payrolls rate of change is sitting in territory that has historically guaranteed a recession, which forces the Fed toward stimulation regardless of where inflation sits. And here’s the part most people have backwards, rising inflation is actually constructive for your assets, right up until the Fed pivots restrictive. Every time forward-looking inflation has turned up, it has lined up with the better windows for Bitcoin and crypto. We simply haven’t seen that spike yet this cycle, which is a big part of why the move so far has felt subdued.

Finally, I did a video on perception versus reality, maybe the most important of the three. Every discount zone we’ve bought has been perceived as gloom and doom in real time. That is not a coincidence; it is the pattern. Perception is subjective and it wrong-foots people constantly, while reality is the hard data and the hard data is what smart money acts on. Bearish perception at a discount is not a reason to stay out. It is arguably a necessary condition for the move that follows.

If any of that caught your attention, the full breakdowns with every chart will go up on the channel this week. I’d genuinely encourage you to watch them, there is a lot there worth seeing laid out visually.

Closing Thought

This was a analysis heavy week, and that’s a good sign. When there’s this much to cover like, the reaction off $74K, the bull case, the macro picture, the psychology underneath all of it. That usually means the market is at an inflection worth paying attention to.

Here’s what I want to leave you with. Everything we’ve been building toward for months is now starting to show up on the charts at the same time. The structural read, the macro backdrop, and the sentiment picture are all pointing the same direction. That alignment doesn’t happen often, and it rarely feels comfortable when it does because the moment everything lines up is also the moment most people are still looking the other way.

The reaction off $74K was the market’s first real answer. Follow-through is what we watch for next. But the bigger point is the one that doesn’t change week to week: the hard data is what matters, not the noise around it. Stay anchored to that, and the rest of this gets a lot easier to navigate.

Plenty more to cover in the videos this week. I’ll see you all in the next issue.

ETH As Our Anchor

I was recently reviewing ETH on the lower time frame, when I noticed something that seemed off. Our daily momentum seemed excessively low for the type of price action that was playing out, especially considering the Weekly and 2 Week Momentum has been building for some time now.

One of my favorite uses of the histogram/momentum indicator is being able to anchor similar points in time. So naturally I wanted to see all the past times ETH daily momentum has moved this low. The answer is 7 other times… (chart below)

Take a moment for a mental screenshot because the entire picture is important here. First I would like to highlight the red/orange bubbles, its seemingly obvious to place the two dumps in 2022 in the same class of move as what we saw in 2018. Daily momentum excessively low yes, but within a true bear market so we are only offered a relief bounce.

But lets talk about the blue and green bubbles because this is where I think we are most similar to now (hint its not just because of daily momentum).

Dynamics, Sentiments, And Outcomes

Lets first look at 2019, what was happening in that blue bubble? That was the bottom in OTHERS/BTC for the 2021 cycle (Aug 2019). As you can assume the sentiment at this time was “BTC pumped from $3500 to $13,000 how are my alts still bleeding” we will circle back to that, but this is only phase 1 in capitulation. People begin to frustratingly question what they previously thought was impossible.

Phase 2 begins in the red box. Even though OTHERS/BTC bottomed and made no new lows, ALTS have not gone up in USD terms. Not only this, but they just got hit with another violent dump (C-19). All analysis leaves out the window at this point. People claim new bear market, BTC is dead, “how can we pump now if the world is shut down”, and broad sentiment becomes the only talking points, much like today.

In this time people do a few things, give up and leave crypto forever or rotate up to BTC for safety, but few see the writing on the wall from the FED and take note of OTHERS/BTC having bottomed.

All of this takes place in the red box & people make rash decisions under pressure.

But as we see in the first chart this was not the play.

What Does This Mean In 2026?

2026 has been no different in my opinion. It was about this time (OCT 2025) that OTHERS/BTC found a bottom and stopped making new lows. While people asked themselves the same questions that they did in phase 1 of capitulation in 2019 (blue bubbles)

Moving to phase 2 in green I see even more similarities. This was another violent dump even after OTHERS/BTC bottomed but had not had the chance to go up in USD terms. And yet again all analysis goes out the window and people parrot the same ideas (see above).

I apologize because I poorly placed this red box, but I even see similarities in price action. The red box should be from the Feb 5th low to where the box begins in mid March & this backtest of the mid range is like the back test of the V bottom we see in the 2019 correction.

The Resolve

In conclusion we have the same dynamics, sentiment, and people are taking the same actions as they did in 2019…

But zoom out things are not all too different

I expect ETH to trade higher like it did in 2020 and I expect alts to finally get their shine in USD terms, after many months of beating BTC even though it doesn’t feel as such.

I will make a video on this next week going into greater detail so make sure you sub on YouTube, but this should suffice for now and I encourage you to fact check me independently, more to come, higher to come, greater to come.

Ladies and Gentleman I will see you there

• The math behind early vs late entries. Across three cycles, allocating at proper discount zones has produced roughly 2,300%, 500%, and 200% more than waiting for the ‘safe’ entry.

• Most popular regime systems (Monthly 9 SMA, 200 SMA on stocks) are optimized to avoid being wrong, which produces bullish reads at premium and bearish reads at discount. Which is the exact inverse of where alpha lives.

• Timing-based signals like the four-year cycle, trend lines, or any others force the prediction of both price and time. The cleaner framework has three variables: price, levels, and discount (never timing).

• BTC continues to reclaim breakdown levels on the weekly and 2-week charts. Critical downside targets are $70K–$71K. Losing it would lead me to believe the 60k low will be swept.

• SPX equal-weight is diverging from the cap-weighted SPX. This is a breadth-collapse signal that explains why crypto stalled even as headline indices made new highs.

Weekly Analysis

Why Trying Not to Lose Costs You the Cycle

Allocating at proper discount zones versus waiting for EMA-based confirmation makes a multi-thousand-percent difference per cycle. Most popular “regime” systems like the 9 SMA monthly closes on BTC, 200 SMA on stocks, EMA crossovers, and most others are structurally optimized to avoid being wrong rather than to capture upside. The result is they consistently signal bullish at premium and bearish at discount, the exact inverse of where the historical return profile actually sits. The deeper point here is incentive alignment: most creators in the space are no longer optimizing for reader gains, because reader attention has already been monetized. Their remaining optimization is to not be wrong and stick to the zeitgeist of the market as to farm views and stay in favor of the masses.

Key Signals

• BTC across cycles: scaling in at the discount lows vs. waiting for 2-week close above 9 SMA — roughly 9,000% vs. 6,700% (~2,300% on the table)

• Last cycle: discount entries to peak ~1,650% vs. late entries ~1,150% — ~500% / 5x left on the table

• This cycle so far: oversold 5-day entries ~630% vs. late entries ~430%

• The 9 SMA “sell below” rule (2022 cycle): saved a 65% drawdown but only re-entered ~27% below the sell price (not enough to make up for missing 200% in gains)

• The 9 SMA “sell below” rule (2018 cycle): saved a ~20% drawdown, recouped ~23% again not enough to make up for missing 500% in gains

• Inverse logic: the actually-useful rule is sell above the EMA into a premium and buy below where the discount lives

• 200 SMA indicator on the Dow pushes traders into premium-zone bullishness and discount-zone bearishness, then chops them out with small 4–6% trades

• Historical capitulation headlines have marked the exact bottoms: Coindesk “Is Bitcoin Dead?” (Jan 2015, Mt. Gox), Arthur Hayes “crypto winter not over” (Feb 2019, ICO unwind), FTX collapse (Nov 2022) all maximum-pessimism prints under the 9M SMA, which was the best time to buy.

• Creator-incentive misalignment: once attention is paid (subscriptions, retweets, referrals), the operator’s optimization shifts from your gains to their “accuracy” no matter how bad it dilutes potential profits

• Goal-clarity rule: different portfolio buckets (cash reserve, long-term DCA, narrative plays, day trades) each have different return profiles — high-beta crypto allocation requires high-beta entry

Price, Levels, Discount — Not Timing

Using timing as a signal, whether that be Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, trend lines, or arbitrary counting of days/phases, forces the prediction of two variables simultaneously: price and time. The cleaner framework is three variables that actually drive market reactions: price, levels, and discount. When all three align, the reaction is fast and clean. When they don’t, no calendar date can save the trade. The same logic that gets applied uncritically to Bitcoin would sound absurd applied to Tesla or Amazon yet its accepted as truth.

Key Signals

• Two axes on any chart: price and time. Time is for human reference; price/levels/discount drive reactions

• Horizontal levels remain valid regardless of how long the back-test takes — 2 months or 20 years, a level is a level

• Confluence rule: levels alone are weaker than levels paired with discount. The Tesla example shows the first retest (no discount) producing no reaction, yet the second (with discount) produces a fast move

• Trend lines force simultaneous price-and-time prediction, doubling the difficulty of an already hard exercise

• Trend lines look clean in hindsight, fail in real time: BTC’s early-2022 trend line looked valid for months before the FTX/LUNA/Ukraine War collapse exposed it

• Cycle-fitting is bias-confirmation: peak-to-peak, trough-to-trough, bottom-to-top, the ‘GURUS’ measure however, fits their previous bias

• The Tesla “825-day cycle” thought experiment: any two arbitrary points generate a plausible-sounding “cycle” if the methodology isn’t audited

• The one legitimate timing concept is the business cycle — 17-year, 8-year, and 4-year cycles stacking across macro variables (stocks, bonds, inflation, unemployment, credit) I will cover this at a later date.

• But the business cycle casts a wide-net. Never dates but rather windows of optimism or pessimism that can be 1–2.5 years; used as confluence with price/level/discount, never as primary signal

• “When moon” questions show exactly why people fall for this, its something in our psychology. We always want to know when and how! But date-based predictions short-circuit price/level/discount analysis because if “dates” were valid nothing else would matter

Structure Holds, Breadth Wobbles — BTC, ETH, and the SPX Signal

BTC continues to reclaim breakdown levels on weekly and 2-week timeframes — sequencing that doesn’t appear in typical bear markets. ETH is sitting at the bottom of the E-leg of its 5-year symmetrical triangle and at a historical discount within its current range. The recent crypto pullback is best explained by the divergence between the SPX equal-weight and the cap-weighted SPX, signaling that breadth is collapsing even as headline indices hold up. That breadth signal is the cleanest read on why high-beta assets like crypto have run into resistance over the past week.

Key Signals

• BTC weekly and 2-week: continuing to reclaim prior breakdown levels — uncharacteristic of typical bear-market structure

• BTC 5-day: tapped into deep discount, resembling cycle-low capitulation rather than pre-capitulation range — refutes the “we haven’t capitulated yet” bear argument

• BTC 2-week momentum: curling up from oversold — the same signal that has marked prior cycle bottoms

• Critical level: $70K–$71K. Losing it would mean a sweep of 60k is very likely

• BTC daily: rolled over from premium back toward discount after hitting intraday-resistance — healthy retest behavior

• ETH 3-day: multiple discount entries this cycle (including mid-February) — all resolved positive for price action

• ETH weekly: similar momentum buildup to BTC’s 2-week structure

• ETH structural: 5-year symmetrical triangle on monthly, currently at the bottom of the E-leg — historical discount within range

• ETH first major level to reclaim: ~$2,400 — first big step forward is to reclaim this level

• NOTE: Classical chart patterns (symmetrical triangles, bull flags, cup-and-handle) only hold up on monthly/weekly/quarterly charts, there is just too much randomness on daily and below

• SPX equal-weight (SPXEW) tracks broad participation; while cap-weighted SPX can mask breadth collapse

• SPXEW stalling at resistance while cap-weighted SPX continues = breadth collapsing, this means the easier part of the trade is over

• Breadth collapse hits high-beta assets first — explains the recent crypto stall even with headline equity indices holding up

• Soft-launched cycle thesis (full breakdown coming later): BTC new ATH in 2026, ETH new ATH in 2026, ETHBTC pump, BTC dominance collapse, potentially the start of the real bear by end of 2026…

Closing Thought

Here’s the part that took me years to fully understand: allocating at the discount is actually the easier trade. It doesn’t feel that way — it feels like the scariest, hardest thing you can do, because everyone around you is calling for lower prices and the headlines are at maximum pessimism. But the math is the math. Discount entries produce the fastest reactions, the quickest path back to profit, and the largest cycle-over-cycle returns. The “safe” trade — waiting for confirmation, for green candles, for general agreement — is the slower one, the one that leaves the most on the table, and the one that puts you underwater longer when the next correction hits.

This is the part most people in the space won’t tell you. And it’s not because they don’t know — it’s because they’re not incentivized to call the bottom. Calling the bottom requires putting a reputation on the line at the exact moment everyone is most certain you’re wrong and surprise surprise it doesn’t result in millions of views as you are against the tide. There’s nothing in the influencer business model that rewards that. What’s rewarded is waiting until the move is already widely accepted, then narrating it. That keeps the accuracy record clean. It also hands you, the reader, the slower trade with the smaller payoff.

The compounding effect is what people miss. Following voices that wait for consensus doesn’t just cost you this cycle’s returns — it trains you into a framework that costs you every cycle that follows. You learn to wait for the wrong signals. You learn to fear the right entries. And years from now, when you look back and try to figure out why your portfolio underperformed despite being right about the broader trend, the answer will be in the entries you didn’t take because the people you trusted weren’t willing to take them either.

The discount is uncomfortable. That’s the price of admission. The people who can sit with that discomfort are the ones who get paid. The people who can’t will never make it .

This Week at a Glance

BTC has reclaimed $80K on the 5-day, weekly, and 2 week charts. This is “step two” in the confirmation called out in Issues 003 and 004.

• Positioning math: a 40% drawdown from $98K (our breakdown from November) has been met with a 35–40% bounce. Those who accumulated at a proper discount are already break-even or in profit, no $98K reclaim required.

• Sentiment across major creators sits in three camps. Still-bearish, fence-sitting, and cautiously bullish on majors only. Which leaves the mid-cap, small-cap, and meme segments in almost nobody’s portfolio (or at least not on their radar).

• The 40/60 momentum test: reclaiming and holding 40 on RSI signals a bull-market regime; rejection from 60 signals a bear. BTC weekly is currently reclaiming the 40 level.

• Every major call from the time I created this channel through now: ETHBTC and ETH bottoms hit, 10/10 cascading liquidation taken on the chin, November and February low both accumulated, now in profit or BE across the board.

  ---

Dip Buys Are in Profit Before Most People Even Believe It's a Bull Market

The math of accumulating at proper discount zones is doing exactly what it was designed to do. The 40% drawdown from the $98K breakdown level has now been met with a 35–40% bounce off the lows, and accumulation positions taken at the daily-oversold zones are already break-even or in profit. No reclaim of $98K is required to be ahead. That is the entire point of buying the discount rather than waiting for confirmation. Bears have now missed the same percentage move to the upside as what they clamored about to the downside from 98k to 60k.

Key Signals

• BTC drawdown from $98K breakdown level: ~40% to the 60k lows

• BTC bounce from the lows: ~35–40% to peak

• Daily-oversold zones marked the accumulation entries in real time, not in retrospect

• Major alts: 60–80% bounces from the same accumulation zone lows

• Position math: properly placed buys are now break-even or up without needing the prior breakdown level reclaimed (98k).

• Even if this resolves as a bear-market rally, an exit from break-even remains an option

• Discount-buying works even when timing is imperfect, accumulating the discount matters more than nailing the wick

The Quiet Setup for Altseason

The OTHERS index is reclaiming key levels it had previously broke down from, with weekly momentum building, while sitting on top of monthly support. What makes the current setup structurally different is the sentiment landscape. Most of the space is split into three camps, and none of them are positioned for what comes next. Perma-bears are still defending the four-year cycle and the October 2026 bottom narrative. Fence-sitters are engagement baiting “is this a bull market?” workshops while the bounce has already happened. Cautiously bullish voices are only adding to majors and skipping the mid-cap, small-cap, and meme segments entirely.

Key Signals

• OTHERS index: weekly reclaim of levels previously broken down from, with momentum building

• OTHERS sitting on top of monthly support

• Camp 1 (perma-bears): still defending the four-year cycle, October 2026 bottom call

• Camp 2 (fence-sitters): asking “is this a bull market?” after 30–80% bounces already played out

• Camp 3 (cautious bulls): adding to majors only & avoiding mid-cap, small-cap, and meme entirely.

• Historical pattern: the largest altseason returns concentrate in the segments that are ignored and often times the “consensus” alts are lack luster

• Mid-caps and small-caps showing accumulation signs while everybody discredits them

The 40/60 Test for Bull vs Bear Markets

A simple addition to any momentum oscillator gives a clean read on whether the trend is bull or bear. In bull markets, momentum reclaims and holds the 40 level on pullbacks. In bear markets, momentum rejects from the 60 level on bounces. The test works on RSI and most other oscillators with comparable architecture, and on any timeframe, but the higher timeframes give cleaner reads. BTC is currently reclaiming the 40 level on the weekly and has already reclaimed it on the 5-day.

Key Signals

• Bull-market signal: momentum reclaims and holds the 40 level on pullbacks

• Bear-market signal: momentum rejects from the 60 level on bounces

• BTC 5-day: 40 level already reclaimed

• BTC weekly: working on reclaiming the 40 level (confirmed as of 5.10.26)

• Historical examples: prior bear-market bottom all confirmed by 40 reclaim

• Trend-shift identification: if 40 fails to hold within an established bull trend, then the bull thesis itself needs review

• Use case: secondary confirmation layered on top of oversold/overbought and divergence reads

Setting the Record Straight! Every Major Call I Have Made Since I Started

A full retrospective of the channel’s calls since April 2025 until now. From April 2025-June 2025 we called for an ETHBTC bottom, ETH bottom, BTC dominance top, & Russell 2000 monthly breakout. Which all of these landed, with ETH delivering a 200% summer move against bearish consensus.

The 10/10 cascading liquidation event was effectively unavoidable for anyone not holding the four-year-cycle top thesis. The recovery sequence since has been as follows. $98K was pre-identified as the structural bear-market line; once broken, the surrounding dynamics (BTC dominance, ETHBTC, Russell 2000) refused to confirm a typical bear-market profile, which kept the accumulation thesis intact. Buys at the $98K break (into the low in November) and the February low are now break-even or up.

Key Signals

• Channel launch (April 2025): ETHBTC bottom, ETH bottom, BTC dominance top, Russell 2000 monthly close above ATH — all hit

• Summer 2025: 200% ETH move played out against the prevailing bearish narrative

• 10/10 cascading liquidation: largest event of its kind in history, unavoidable for non-four-year-cycle holders

• $98K pre-identified as the level that would trigger bear-market caution if broken

• Post-10/10 dynamics: BTC dominance, ETHBTC, Russell 2000 monthly closes above ATH were not aligned with a typical bear-market profile

• Accumulation: November low and February low, both now break-even or in profit

• Current setup mirrors that of when this channel first started (overly bearish sentiment into a constructive structural backdrop)

Closing Thought

The easy part of this trade is over.

That sounds counterintuitive given how strong the move has been, but it’s worth saying clearly. The setup we’ve been calling for months is now playing out, and the people who positioned at the lows are already in profit. That part is done. What comes next is harder, not because the move is over, but because we’re now in a transition phase where sentiment hasn’t fully caught up yet.

Most of the space is still not overly bullish. But with a little more green or a sharper move to the upside, that will start to shift. When it does, that’s where I expect the first real pullback to come in.

If you didn’t accumulate at the lows, DCA’ing is still a viable option here. We could see large candles back into the fib levels without much warning, or we could chop sideways while we firm up the $80K reclaim. Timing entries cleanly from here is harder than it was a few weeks ago. That’s just the trade-off of being late to the discount.

But zoom out. The same dynamics we’ve been talking about for months are still in play, and the majority of crypto participants still haven’t caught up. As long as that remains true, the move has room to extend. The pullback comes when consensus flips and people stop calling this a bear market.

Stay sharp & feel free to comment or question and I will get back to you!

This Week at a Glance

• BTC has reclaimed $75K on the 2-week and monthly! Historically, similar levels take much longer to reclaim in true bear markets. For the next target we are eyeing $80K.

• Stablecoin dominance is rolling over from overbought, this is the cleanest/easiest to understand analysis that I have.

• The standard “oil up = bad for assets” narrative breaks down when you actually look at a chart. What matters more is inflation expectations and if the Fed can backstop, not Oil or Gold in isolation.

• The 4 yr cycle theory will be challenged & I never believed in it! Most major alts topped May 2021, not November 2021 + 3 other reasons why the 4 yr cycle theory fails

• My investing philosophy: macro → asset beta play → discount-based entry, all viewed horizontally rather than diagonally.

Weekly Analysis

The Bottom Is Here — Last Chance for Discount Pricing

BTC has reclaimed key levels on the 2-week and monthly chart that, in prior bear markets, took substantially longer to reclaim. The combination of clean candle structure, momentum building across the 5-day and 2-week, and confluence with stablecoin dominance rolling over points to a bottom already being put in. The previously discussed sub-$60K sweep is becoming increasingly less likely with each new structural confirmation.

Key Signals

• $75K reclaimed on 2-week and monthly; $80K is the next structural target

• (Pending Sunday 5.10.26) Two consecutive 2-week candle closes above prior breakdown levels

• Weekly close: clean hammer candle that back tests key support which is uncharacteristic of bear-market price action

• 5-day momentum indicator has bottomed. Historically, you want to be allocated before this happens

• 2-week momentum building (the higher the time frame the more accurate)

• ETH 3-day mirroring BTC with reclaimed levels and momentum confluence

• BTC Bollinger Bands at the most compressed reading in history (pending volatile expansion)

• Sub-$60K sweep increasingly unlikely given the strength of the recent reclaims

The Cleanest Read on the Crypto Market Right Now

Stablecoin dominance (USDT + USDC combined) provides one of the cleanest reads available on how you should be positioned in crypto. This is because money in the crypto market sits in either coins or stables. When stablecoin dominance is overbought and rolling over, capital is rotating into risk. The current reading is overbought and weakening, which resembles setups that have historically marked market bottoms.

Key Signals

• USDT + USDC weekly dominance at overbought, momentum rolling over

• Understand the WHY: Is money in coins, moving to stables, or out of crypto entirely? Only the first scenario benefits prices

• Prior setups coincided with BTC bottoms (2023 double-bottom included)

• Inverse signals also hold true, like when stable-dominance being oversold marked the March/April 2024 top

• The current setup has historically resolved into either a V-bottom or a double-bottom. I currently lean toward the former

What Gold, Oil, and Inflation Actually Tell You

There is a simple narrative…. oil up = bad, gold up = bad, inflation up = bad, but that does not hold up on chart. The relationships between gold, oil, inflation, and risk assets are non-linear, and clean reads emerge only when policy backstops and inflation expectations are factored in alongside price moves (in oil, gold, and other measures). Currently, we have gold rolling over from overbought, oil fighting for higher (Iran premium can end anytime), & inflation expectations starting to rise. This resembles something much closer to mid-2015 (a constructive risk-on setup) than to the late-1999 sequence that preceded weakness/crash.

Key Signals

• Inflation expectations + Fed policy backstop are the real variables, not oil or gold in isolation

• 2013 historical parallel: oil spike + gold weak + risk assets rallied (The FED backstop was present & is seen in inflation expectations)

• 1999 historical counter-parallel: gold bottoming + oil spiking + no backstop = pressure on equities

• Gold’s weekly chart has had its first bearish momentum cross in three years (a structural shift)

• Watch for inflation expectations rolling up while gold rolls over. This is a constructive risk-on signal and counterintuitive to what the Gold bugs parrot.

• When to worry: If inflation expectations and y/y inflation roll over, this signals there is no Fed backstop. So if Gold and Oil spike while inflation declines, that’s the dangerous configuration.

Why the Four-Year Cycle Narrative Doesn’t Hold Up

The standard four-year cycle thesis assumes November 2021 as the cycle peak, but most major altcoins (XRP, BNB, DOGE, and a long list of others) topped in May 2021, with only a select few extending into the November double-top.

Peak euphoria was also in the spring, rather than in Q4 of 2021. Look back to the NFT craze, celebrity adoption, and corporate balance sheet purchases; these also occurred in May, not November. If the peak is repositioned to where euphoria actually occurred, the four-year cycle alignment falls apart, and the framework for thinking about this cycle’s eventual top changes meaningfully.

Key Signals

• Most majors (XRP, BNB, DOGE) topped May 2021, not November

• Peak euphoria markers (NFT mania, celebrity adoption, Tesla balance sheet, Elon Musk & DOGE, De-Fi Summer) all clustered in May

• In November 2021, we saw a select few coins make new ATH’s, most by only a few % points. This was by no means market-conscious.

• November of 2021 was the first time a cycle showed a major bearish divergence at the alleged top, uncharacteristic of cycle blow-off tops marked by euphoria (unless the top was May 2021)

• The “Super cycle” narrative was popular in June 2022 after the November 2021 top, but now that same crowd is now defending the four-year cycle

• Just look at where BTC dominance marked the top of the cycle in 2018… The same sequence came to finality in May of 2021, while altcoins went parabolic (collectively).

• Bonus: Institutional involvement is not new & has been present since 2017. I believe this aligns crypto more closely with traditional macro in 2026 (which just made new ATH’s and is not crashing)

The Investing Philosophy Behind the Calls

The framework that has driven the calls on this channel is simple and stacks from macro down to entry. The macro view identifies the overarching trade. Crypto is selected as the highest-beta vehicle to express that trade. Entries are taken only at historical discount levels, identified through indicators rather than narrative. Charts are read horizontally — by levels, not trend lines — to filter out noise during fear phases. Each piece compounds.

Key Signals

• “All one trade”: Dow up, 10Y rolling over, gold topping, BTC bottoming all express the same macro position

• Vehicle selection: crypto provides the highest payoff if the macro trade is correct (beta amplification)

• Entry rule: historical discount only, confirmed by indicator not by narrative agreement

• Read charts horizontally (levels), not diagonally (trend lines) diagonals predict price and time simultaneously, we care only about discount and premium

• Macro overlay reference: high-yield credit spreads tightening = constructive backdrop for risk assets

• Historical proof: BTC $30 → $1K (2013), $750 → $20K (2017), $15K → $60K (2021) each preceded by the same macro setup

• Exit framework: the same trade in reverse — credit spreads widening + Dow topping = rotate out of crypto

Closing Thought

For the first time in a while, there’s something different in the air. Price is appreciating. Levels are getting reclaimed. The framework we’ve been leaning on is doing exactly what it was supposed to do.

I want to say this clearly: it’s okay to feel good about it.

A lot of you have been holding the line for months. You sat through the chop, the fear, the headlines, and the noise, yet you stayed positioned when most of the space couldn’t. That takes real discipline. So when the move finally starts to play out, give yourself a second to enjoy it. You earned it.

That said, this isn’t the part where we get loud. The bears are still bears, the bulls are still hedged, and the broader space is still in disbelief. That dynamic is what’s fueling this move, and as long as it holds, the move keeps going. We don’t flip into euphoria & we don’t take victory laps. We stay disciplined, we stay positioned, and we let it all work out.

The hard part is over. The fun part is just getting started. Enjoy it — but don’t lose your edge.

This Week at a Glance

• The S&P 500 has pulled a move not seen since 1950, with bears still loud and bulls still hedged — this looks like disbelief during recovery, not euphoria.

• My most critical momentum indicator has flashed only four times in BTC’s 5-day history; all four marked major opportunities.

• An Aave exploit triggered the standard “DeFi is dead” cycle on Twitter, while developer activity, institutional rails, and bank lobbying all point the other direction.

• BTC reclaiming $74K on the 2-week is step one; a weekly or 5-day close above $80K would mark step two of structural confirmation.

• For the first time on the channel, specific cycle targets are on the record for BTC, ETH, XRP, and SOL — with a year-end 2026 deadline.

  ---

  Weekly Analysis

  Why This Bounce Doesn’t Look Like a Top

  The bounce off the most recent oversold low has been met with continued bearishness from traders, long-term investors, and most creators in the space. Topping moves are typically marked by euphoria, not disbelief. Structurally, the longer sentiment stays bearish into a recovering market, the further the move tends to extend, and the sequence behind this setup runs all the way back to the April 2025 tariff drama.

  Key Signals

  • Sequence anchor: April 2025 retrace to the 0.5 fib (back-test of prior ATH and Oct 2022 cycle low)

  • October 27th the “chop phase” kicked off the broader correction in both equities and crypto (after reaching the first target on SPX)

  • BTC bottomed February 5; S&P 500 bottomed weeks later — confluence with BTC as a leading indicator

  • Most recent low: daily momentum oversold at range low and just reclaimed the range high

  • S&P 500 has had a move not seen since 1950 (3-week recovery)

  • Forward 12-month average return after comparable moves: roughly +19%

  • Same expanding flat ABC structure that resolved on S&P 500 is now visible on BTC

The Indicator Behind Every Recent Call

My momentum-based indicator is built around multiple timeframes, with calculations for time decay. It recently signaled the bottom in US stock indices and the top in gold, and is now flashing oversold across BTC and altcoins. On BTC’s 5-day timeframe, only four prior instances have reached this level of oversold — all four marked major opportunities to allocate.

Key Signals

• Multi-timeframe momentum indicator with a time-decay weighting component

• BTC 5-day: only four readings in history at this level of oversold

• Same indicator called the recent US stock indices bottom and the gold top

• Currently firing on BTC weekly, BTC 5-day, and the altcoin market

• “Discount or premium” framework: position when the chart is at a discount, not when narrative agrees

  

  Subscribe now

  The Three Things Hiding Behind the DeFi FUD

  An Aave exploit affecting several Ethereum layer-2s has triggered the standard “DeFi is dead” cycle across Twitter. Three structural data points cut the other way: developer activity, institutional adoption rails, and the political opposition coming from the banking sector. Buying a weekly-oversold DeFi position during peak headline FUD is the recurring contrarian setup.

  Key Signals

  • Total DeFi TVL: $90 billion; Ethereum holds 56% of it

  • Developers continue to choose Ethereum despite the headline cycle

  • Ethereum is the preferred base layer for RWAs, stablecoins, and tokenized Treasuries

  • Bank of America CEO warned roughly $6 trillion in deposits could shift on-chain if DeFi yields are permitted

  • Banks lobbied directly against DeFi yield provisions in the Clarity Act

  • “Follow the developers” framework — same logic that flagged Solana into the FTX collapse

  • Weekly oversold + headline FUD = the structural buy zone for DeFi exposure

    

    

    The Cost of Staying Contrarian

    The structural confirmation on BTC has two steps. Step one is the 2-week reclaim of $74,000, which is completed. Step two is a weekly or 5-day close above $80,000, which would meaningfully shift the structural read. The longer the contrarian stance has been held through a bearish-leaning environment, the more aligned the current setup becomes with prior cycle inflections on the chart.

    Key Signals

    • BTC 2-week: reclaim of $74,000 (complete) — step one of structural confirmation

    • Weekly or 5-day close above $80,000 = step two; the level that meaningfully changes the read

    • Bears are loud and confident, bulls present but hedged — this is the dynamic that typically precedes substantial moves

    • Operating principle: you must be the biggest bull at the lows and the biggest bear at the top, independent of crowd sentiment

      

      Thanks for reading Think & Grow Rich With Crypto! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

      Targets for the Cycle: BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL

      For the first time on the channel, specific cycle price targets and a deadline have been placed on the record for four major coins. The framing is explicit: these are mature, top-10 assets currently offering bear-market-low risk/reward profiles outside of an actual bear market low. That’s a structural window I have never really seen before.

      Key Signals

      • BTC: 5-day oversold sitting on prior ATH support; first stop ~$150K (2.618 ext); cycle target range ~$200K–$240K (3.618–4.236 ext)

      • ETH: 3-day oversold; 5-year symmetrical triangle on monthly; first profit zone ~$7K (1.618 ext); 80% scaled out by ~$10K (2.618 ext); ~$16K = full top alert

      • XRP: pulled back ~60–70% from cycle high; target range $8–$10 (3.618–4.236 area)

      • SOL: pulled back ~66–74% from cycle high; target range $400–$600

      • All four are top-10 coins with active ETF flows and tend to be leaders when markets get moving

        

        

        

        

        Closing Thought

        In closing, there’s really not much to say. We’ve been calling for this bounce for weeks, and so far it’s playing out the way we expected.

        What I’m watching for now is follow-through, and reclaiming $80,000 would solidify the bottom in my opinion.

        Sentiment is doing exactly what we wanted it to do. The bears are still loud, the bulls are still hedged, and most of the space is stuck in disbelief. That’s the dynamic that fuels these moves. The longer they stay bearish, the higher this thing goes — and the faster it gets there.

        Stay patient. Stay positioned. The hard part of this trade was sitting through the last few months. The easier part is what comes next.

        YouTube

        Thanks for reading Think & Grow Rich With Crypto! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

This Week at a Glance

• Ethereum’s weekly momentum is curling out of oversold for the third time in this range — a setup that, in past instances, arrived after the low was already in.

• The S&P 500 completed an expanding flat correction and ran 12 consecutive green days to new all-time highs; oversold back-tests at key support rarely reward the short side.

• Stablecoin dominance — the “Bitcoin to $30K” chart from February — is rolling over from overbought, a historically reliable precondition for crypto relief.

• A Bitcoin dominance spike may be coming, but spikes that occur while BTC price rises have historically accompanied strong crypto environments, not altcoin drawdowns.

• Bitcoin’s weekly momentum just confirmed its first upside cross out of extreme oversold — a print that never appeared at the November 2025 low.

Weekly Analysis

Ethereum’s Momentum Is Curling for the Third Time

Ethereum’s weekly and 5-day momentum indicators are rolling upward out of the same oversold zones that marked prior cycle turning points. In each of the two previous instances — mid-2022 and April 2025 — the price low had already been printed by the time the cross confirmed. The same structural condition is now present on the OTHERS chart, reinforcing the broader altcoin read.

Key Signals

• Weekly and 5-day ETH momentum curling up out of oversold territory

• Momentum indicator, once turned, tends to hold direction — unlike MACD, it rarely bounces

• Two prior comparable setups: mid-2022 bottom and April 2025 bottom

• In both cases, the cycle low was already in by the time the cross confirmed

• OTHERS index showing the same structure on weekly and monthly

• Breath Momentum Indicator weekly cross confirmed — echoes 2020 and late-2023 prior signals

• 2020 parallel: many major alts bottomed via double bottoms even as OTHERS printed a new low

The Expanding Flat Correction and the Bears Caught In It

The S&P 500 just completed an expanding flat correction — an Elliott Wave structure where the B wave takes out the A wave high (trapping bulls) and the C wave undercuts the A wave low (trapping shorts). The resulting move has been 12 consecutive green days to new all-time highs. The same structure is now visible on Bitcoin’s chart.

Key Signals

• Expanding flat: B wave exceeds A wave high; C wave traps shorts below the A wave low

• Simpler framing: ignore the pattern label, ask only whether the asset is at a discount

• Daily oversold + back-test of key support historically marks working entries

• Prior comparable lows: 2020 and April 2025 — shorting either produced no sustained reward

• Sentiment skew: bears loud and certain; bulls present but hedged

• Similar expanding flat structure visible on Bitcoin’s chart — possible parallel resolution

The Chart Bears Stopped Talking About

Stablecoin dominance — the chart cited across the space in February as the reason Bitcoin would crash to $30K — has quietly rolled over from overbought. Every historical extreme in this chart has timed up with a reversal in crypto. When stables peak and roll, capital rotates back into risk, and Ethereum and altcoins respond.

Key Signals

• Rising stablecoin dominance = capital leaving risk assets for USDT and USDC

• Extreme stable-dominance overbought has preceded every major crypto low on this chart

• Prior signals: 2020 bull launch, mid-2022 ETH cycle bottom, March 2024 inverse top

• Current signal is the fifth since 2020 — timed with ETH’s February 2026 low

• Inverse logic also holds: stablecoin dominance oversold and rising has preceded tops

• Contrarian framing: when a chart is in universal public view, the opposite outcome tends to play out

Why a Bitcoin Dominance Spike Isn’t a Threat This Time

Bitcoin dominance has momentum curling upward on both weekly and monthly, which structurally points to a spike in the coming weeks. Fear of a BTC dominance spike is conditioned on spikes that occurred during BTC price declines — a very different regime. When dominance spikes while BTC price rises, it signals a strong, sustainable crypto environment, and altcoins still perform.

Key Signals

• “Safety Trade” composite: BTC + ETH + USDT + USDC dominance tracked together

• Rising composite = bear regime; sideways = relief; falling = altseason conditions

• 2020 BTC dominance spike occurred alongside rising BTC price and 7–10% daily candles

• Through that spike, every major altcoin still produced gains off their lows

• BTC dominance spike during BTC decline is the setup that decimates alts — not the current one

• Momentum curling up on weekly and monthly BTC dominance now

The First Weekly Momentum Uptick Is In

Bitcoin’s weekly momentum just confirmed its first upside cross out of extreme oversold. This signal did not print at the January 2025 low, and it arrives after three consecutive green weeks. On a macro scale, this type of cross — particularly from deep oversold — typically marks a bottom being put in rather than a continuation of the decline.

Key Signals

• Weekly momentum: first upside cross out of extreme oversold confirmed

• 5-day timeframe likely to echo the same cross on the following close

• This print never appeared at the January 2025 low — a new development for this cycle

• Three consecutive green weekly candles into the signal

• Sentiment: bears loud and overly certain; bulls hedged and passive — the dynamic that typically precedes upside

Closing Thought

Now more than ever, it’s imperative to keep a level head and focus on the variables you can actually control. No one knows how the war will resolve. The macro environment remains just as volatile — driven by those same geopolitical tensions and the overall nature of who sits in office.

That said, a few facts cannot be ignored. Crypto is extremely oversold. Across every major asset class right now, it’s offering the deepest discount and the cleanest risk-to-reward setup on the board.

Discounts do not last long. Smart money and bigger money tend to fill those gaps faster than most people expect. If you’re reading this, you’ve been following the work long enough to already be positioned — or to have fresh buys out there. That puts you on the same side of the trade as some of the smartest money in the game.

The broader point: most of the things people fear never actually happen. By the time a geopolitical risk hits the headlines & by the time it’s being fear-mongered on short-form apps the market has almost certainly priced it in. Given how fast narratives can flip in this environment, it’s more likely the market has already begun pricing the fear back out than continuing to price it in.

We’re all here because we know crypto is the future of finance. If I told you your favorite Apple product was on sale for 75% off right now, what would you do? You’d likely be a buyer and not just a one-time buyer but a buyer of multiple makes and models. The crypto market right now is no different. You know it’s the future. It’s one of your favorite products and it’s sitting at 75% off. But only while supplies last. The choice is yours.